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The Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) targets the private vehicle fleet (both new and second hand). It does not necessarily induce a mode switch away from the car (i.e. car to bus) but aims to induce a shift between vehicle classes towards more energy efficient vehicles differentiated by carbon emissions. For instance, emissions of CO2 from new passenger cars registered in the UK between 2000 and 2005 have fallen from a fleet average of 181 to 169 gCO2/km (Mazzi and Dowlatabadi, 2007). However, it is important to note that these carbon savings cannot be solely attributed to the VED but are likely attributable to a host of policies including the car manufacturer Voluntary Agreement (VA) and eco-labeling. The VED may have also contributed albeit not directly towards an increase in the UK from petrol cars towards diesel cars particularly in the company car fleet (Banister, 2007; Mazzi and Dowlatabadi, 2007). Diesel cars are 25% more fuel efficient on average. Between 2001 and 2005, diesel cars have contributed to CO2 reductions as their market share has grown exponentially at an annual compounded rate of 21%. Figure 2-2 illustrates how diesel market share in the UK had declined from 1995 onward while diesels were gaining market share in the rest of the European Union (EU) largely due to the EU tax regime. Similarly, the changes in the UK tax regime are arguably the turning point for the rise of diesels (Mazzi and Dowlatabadi, 2007).

Figure 2-2. Diesel share of new car registrations in the European Union (EU) and UK, 1988 - 2006
Source: Mazzi and Dowlatabadi, 2007
What can be observed is that while aggregate EU demand for diesels began increasing in 1995, UK demand continued to decline until the first CO2 policy incentive came into effect in 2001 and has since been increasing continuously suggesting a significant mode shift towards diesel cars (Mazzi and Dowlatabadi, 2007).
Although progress has been made in encouraging increased sales of diesel, shifting to the best performing vehicle within a VED band is challenged by lack of availability (EAC, 2006; Banister, 2007). The UK through its Powering Future Vehicles Strategy has set a target for 2012 to have 10% of all new cars emitting under 100 gCO2/km. In order to meet this target, of 2.5 million new cars sold each year a quarter million low carbon cars needs to be sold by 2012. In 2004, the number of low carbon cars sold was 481 declining to 467 in 2005 (EAC, 2006). By July 2006, there was only 1 low carbon model available on market with sales for the first half of the year of 188 (EAC, 2006). However, the King (2007) Review indicates that choosing the most fuel-efficient car within a market segment can reduce a driver’s CO2 emissions by 25% contributing to carbon reductions over the next 10 to 15 years.